Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the country and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. Each writes two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass identity markers, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has got something to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
